During the Spring Festival, outside dish is strong, leave running high after the domestic financial market, spot market price continued to rise, and the strong steel and raw material rising in price, steel market ushered in the "start", after the market prices sharply higher, cold rolled sheet is gains, according to Mysteel statistics show that during the holiday to the Lantern Festival, the national manufacture volume average price 262 yuan/ton. In addition to the macro and the news of the stimulus, the supply and demand of cold rolled coil itself is relatively good, in the post-holiday resumption of work and production under the positive background, the terminal procurement presents a large volume situation, both supply and demand to improve the market high strong form a significant support.
Steel mills: As of this week, the overall operating rate of 29 cold-rolled steel mills in Mysteel is 89.77%, up 12.77% week on week and 8.51% year on year. Capacity utilization rate was 83.73%, up 1.74% week on week and 8.51% year on year; Weekly production was 847,500 tons, an increase of 17,580 tons month-on-week and 86,150 tons year-on-year. Downstream procurement demand picked up significantly last week, and terminal activity strengthened, including the gradual return of workers in some manufacturing factories. Aftermarket demand will continue to stimulate production growth.
Policy: since most state-owned steel mills have introduced price adjustment policy in March before the Spring Festival, although Baowu and other steel mills are mainly flat, but in February its leading policy has raised 200-400 yuan/ton without tax, so the order cost is relatively at a high level; At the same time, some steel mills in February to March orders in a continuous order state, although the Spring Festival orders exist unsaturated state, but after the festival orders quickly reached the ideal state, high costs continue to support spot. According to the survey after the holiday, nearly 80 percent of the steel mills said that the basic problem of March orders is not big, the short-term market is still optimistic.
Market: Mysteel, February 22-26 weeks to live all volume compared to 2020 the average annual growth of 15.8%, merchants' feedback although the influence of the mentality, disk downward when delivery performance in general, but the overall performance is good, the demand for the market feedback, mainstream large businesses, volume or can reach between 1000-2000 tons, relative presents optimistic situation, and this trend is still expected to be maintained in the coming week.
Inventory: last week, the inventory of steel mills was 433,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 160,800 tons, the pressure is relatively acceptable; In terms of social inventory, this website monitors the stock in 26 cities. The social inventory of cold-rolled coil is 1.2291 million tons, with a month-on-week increase of 32,300 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 126,600 tons. After the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been growing by inertia, the current statistical total is 1.662,800 tons, with a month-on-week increase of 42,500 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 287,400 tons. From the trend of inventory in the last four years, the current level is relatively higher than that of 2019 but significantly lower than that of 2018 and 2020.According to the analysis of the inventory peak in the fourth week after the Spring Festival in previous years, the inventory peaks this year may come in mid-to-late March. Only from the perspective of inventory pressure, then will start to force the cold rolled market trend.
From the aspect of automobile manufacturing, the latest production and sales data of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers in January showed that the domestic automobile production and sales volume in January 2021 reached 2.388 million and 2.503 million respectively, down 15.9% and 11.6% respectively from December last year, but up 34.6% and 29.5% respectively from January last year. According to the feedback and communication from the automobile factory, although the base was relatively low in January last year due to the epidemic, and the Spring Festival was also in January, it is undeniable that the market procurement demand is indeed in a recovery situation. It is worth mentioning that in terms of new energy vehicles, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in January 2021 were 194,000 units and 179,000 units, up 2.9 times and 2.4 times compared with 2020, becoming a "powerful force" in the field of automobile consumption.
In terms of market mentality, traders said that the medium and long term is still optimistic, mainly in this year's manufacturing consumption for cold rolled plate support will continue to highlight, high production under the effect of inventory digestion can be confirmed. Of course, from the short-term cautious attitude, the release of too fast production after the Spring Festival will bring some pressure, at the same time, under the condition of high prices, there will be profit cash operation will be an important factor for some businesses to consider.
Summarize the following main operating characteristics of the market:
First, variety and regional price differences will still be large. In terms of variety price difference, except for the northern region, the cold and hot price difference is more than 600 yuan/ton, and most of the others are still between 800 and 900 yuan/ton. Plating cold price mainstream continues to maintain more than 200 yuan/ton, the northern region even in 500 yuan/ton. It reflects that the northern cold rolling price is still not driven by the demand to start the strong, the price is still relatively low. In terms of regional price difference, the price difference between East China and North China is as high as 250 yuan/ton, while the price difference between South China and East China is inverted by 100 yuan/ton. On the one hand, the East China market cold rolling performance is relatively strong; On the other hand, Liusteel as the circulation of the leading market in South China, its market is still relatively weak. Overall, there is still a long way to go for the price gap to shrink under the background of high market prices and continued positive terminal consumption.
Second, cold rolling price trend or maintain wide running. After the Spring Festival, the average price of hot coil rose by 351 yuan/ton, significantly higher than that of cold rolled by 89 yuan/ton. In the rising process, the cold rolled market was undoubtedly driven by the cost of hot coil. In the context of high commodity costs, the trend of hot volume or will continue to perform "exaggerated", in the process of following, the price of cold rolling is also large, when the pressure comes back is also large.
Finally, without too much to repeat, the cold rolling rise is still the main theme, price shocks strong is still the main tone, when the pressure is not coming, the market can go with the wind. Based on the post-holiday high 260 yuan/ton, combined with the steel mill order cost is strong, when the inventory turning point arrives, the author is expected to stage there is still a shock upward 100-150 yuan/ton space.
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