In March, the production of tinplate may decline compared with the same period last year
As of the beginning of this month, the survey data of 26 tinplate coil production enterprises monitored monthly by Mysteel show that in February 2021, the total output was 355,000 tons, down 18% month-on-month; capacity utilization rate was 62%, down 14% month-on-month; the operating rate was 87.8%, down 5.2% month-on-month. Before the Spring Festival, the author investigated domestic sample enterprises and found that except for state-owned enterprises, most private enterprises and joint ventures would stop inspection during the Spring Festival, and the total supply was bound to decline. However, the decline of tinplate production in February was more than expected. First of all, after receiving the original holiday, most of the enterprise boot time has been extended, the longest extension to the end of February to start production; Secondly, the cost of raw materials rose sharply after the Spring Festival, which led to the postponement of the start of construction caused by enterprises' delay in purchasing raw materials. Finally, the number of days in February also affected part of the tinplate supply.
From the procurement cost trend of tinplate, the overall trend continues to rise.
Data show that the ordering cost of M steel plant in March is 5000 yuan/ton (3.0mm), which is reduced by 200-yuan month-on-month. The settlement cost of T steel plant in February is 4850 yuan/ton (3.0mm), which is increased by 120-yuan month-on-month. Since March, with the hot rolling price continues to pull up, coupled with the tight supply of substrate, it is expected that the settlement in March and the guide price of substrate in April will be significantly increased.
On the whole, the author expects the recent price of tinplate is likely to break "8" preface, April tinplate as a whole still present high running. Environmental protection limit production, Tangshan multi-enterprise blast furnace inspection into maintenance, strong steel price bullish expectations steel price correction is more difficult; Short-term substrate supply reduction, tinplate supply reduction, tinplate prices have strong support; The mood of the downstream can-making industry to accept orders at high prices is OK, but the end user orders are maintained well. The supply and demand, cost and profit of the industry chain will enter a new round of adjustment in the transmission of commodity value.
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